Foreign Trade Data: Overview Of China'S Textile And Garment Foreign Trade In The First Three Quarters

After entering the third quarter of this year, China's textile and clothing exports are facing more and more risks and challenges. The global epidemic situation has repeatedly intensified. The recovery of the world economy is still uncertain. The international bulk commodity prices are running at a high level. Parts of China are affected by the multiple impacts of the epidemic situation and the flood situation. The sea freight soars and the production and power restriction affect the performance of the contract, resulting in the loss of orders. In the face of many adverse factors, textile and clothing exports still achieved good results in the third quarter. The decline of exports in that quarter narrowed and exports resumed growth in September, which led to a rapid growth of cumulative exports in the first three quarters, which exceeded the forecast value given by the industry in the middle of the year. The reasons for the increase are as follows:

First, the expansion of external demand boosted the growth of consumer goods exports. Under the epidemic situation, the demand for daily consumer goods in developed countries such as Europe and the United States is booming. In September, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of general consumer goods, including furniture, bags, clothing, toys, shoes and boots, accelerated to 13.9% from 9.6% in August. In August, imports of general consumer goods from the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 22.3%, 7.9% and 1% respectively.

Second, the rise in prices has accelerated exports. This year, the prices of international bulk commodities continue to be high, and the prices of domestic procurement and import of cotton, chemical fiber and other textile raw materials remain high, and the increase is likely to expand. From the perspective of industrial producer purchasing price index, the purchasing price index of textile raw materials increased by 3.5% in the first three quarters, and increased by 7.6% in September, which was 0.9% higher than that of the previous month. The cumulative import price of cotton rose by 12%, including 37% in September and 2.4% in chemical fiber, with an increase of 20% in September. In the first half of the year, the price rise of raw materials did not transmit to the downstream, making the profits of enterprises seriously squeezed. Since the third quarter, under the influence of multiple adverse factors, export enterprises have been passively raising prices. The export prices of downstream clothing products have risen as a whole, and the average price increase of knitwear garments in the third quarter has reached 20%. Domestic prices also increased. In September, the producer ex factory price index of textile industry increased by 7.4%, with a cumulative increase of 2.5%. The producer ex factory price index of clothing and clothing industry increased by 0.4% in the same month. Among them, the recovery rate of ex factory price of knitting manufacturing industry exceeded that of woven clothing. The price of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased rapidly. The ex factory price index increased by 23.8% in September, and the cumulative increase was 13.8%.

Third, the export of epidemic prevention materials slowed down. The year-on-year decline in the export of medical masks gradually narrowed, from 90% in May to 70%, while that of medical protection decreased from 90% to 83%. The drag of exports of the two major anti epidemic products on export growth in September was only 11.2 percentage points, the smallest since April this year.

Fourth, Southeast Asia was repeatedly affected by the epidemic to reduce production and exports, and some orders returned to China, filling the gap of the decline in the manufacturing industry in the region.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the environment faced by exports is still grim and complex. With the gradual withdrawal of the key market rescue policy and the superposition with inflation, consumers' consumption intention will be restrained to a certain extent; After Southeast Asian countries adapt to the epidemic situation, the return of orders will gradually decrease, and the purchasing direction of importers will return to the track before the epidemic; Production and power rationing will continue for a period of time in various regions, which will cause capacity bottleneck in the short term, affecting orders, production and shipment before the end of the year. It is expected that the export growth in the fourth quarter will still be difficult to recover under the high base effect, but the general trend of export growth in the whole year is no longer in suspense.

From January to September this year, China's textile and clothing trade volume reached US $254.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and an increase of 15.4% over the same period in 2019. Among them, exports amounted to 233.02 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.4%, an increase of 15.5% over the same period in 2019; Imports were $21.15 billion, up 23.5%, 14.2% over the same period in 2019, and the cumulative trade surplus was $211.87 billion, up 4.9% and 15.6% compared with the same period in 2019.

In September, the trade volume of textiles and clothing reached US $32.35 billion, up 4.1% year-on-year, 22% higher than the same period in 2019, and 3.2% lower than the same period in 2019. Among them, the export was US $29.83 billion, an increase of 3.4%, an increase of 21.9% over the same period in 2019, and a decrease of 3.4% on a month on month basis; Imports reached US $2.52 billion, an increase of 13.4%, an increase of 23.8% over the same period in 2019, and a decrease of 0.8% on a month on month basis. The trade surplus of the month was US $27.31 billion, an increase of 2.6%, a 21.7% increase over the same period in 2019, and a decrease of 3.6% on a month on month basis.

Cumulative export decline

Narrowed by clothing

Since the third quarter, the monthly export of textile and clothing showed a rebound trend. In August, the export volume exceeded $30 billion. In September, the export resumed growth after declining in consecutive April. The cumulative export in the third quarter was 89.63 billion US dollars, down 2.5%, less than the second quarter (- 4.9%).

Driven by the recovery of external market demand, terminal consumer clothing plays a significant role in the overall export. In the third quarter, the cumulative export of clothing was 52.54 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a month on month increase of 32.3% compared with the second quarter, which positively promoted the overall export growth of textile and clothing in the current quarter by 5.7%.

Due to the repeated and aggravating epidemic situation in ASEAN and other places, the export of textile intermediate products was hindered. In the third quarter, the textile export decreased by 15.8%, and decreased by 0.2% compared with the second quarter. However, in September, exports only fell by 4.9%, significantly narrowed compared with the previous period, and gradually showed a rising trend.

　　                                   Q3 in 2020       Q4 in 2020       Q1 2021       Q2 in 2021       Q3 in 2021

Europe, America and ASEAN

The good trend of the market remains unchanged

Since the third quarter, the recovery of the US and EU markets is relatively clear, and China's exports to them have shown a stable growth trend. The repeated impact of the epidemic situation in ASEAN has led to a temporary decline in China's exports to ASEAN, but it does not affect the long-term positive trend. The Japanese market is still twists and turns in the fluctuation, and lacks the power of sustained recovery.

Exports to the United States resumed growth. Exports to the U.S. stopped falling in September, and exports increased by 2.9% in the same month. The cumulative export to the United States has maintained a good growth trend. From January to September, the cumulative export to the United States reached US $42.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and an increase of 21.2% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the large category of knitted and woven clothing increased by 39.7%, 5.5% compared with the same period in 2019. With the recovery of U.S. consumer confidence, the external prediction of the U.S. economic recovery occupies the mainstream, and it is expected that consumer goods exports to the United States will maintain a positive trend in the fourth quarter.

The decline of exports to the EU narrowed, and the growth of clothing expanded. In September, China's export to the European Union decreased further to 2.9%, among which the growth rate of large categories of knitted and woven garments increased to 19%. From January to September, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU reached 35.18 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, and an increase of 14.6% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export of knitted and woven garments increased by 15.7%, which was 5.9% higher than that in 2019.

The recovery of Japanese market is slow, and the export to Japan is in the fluctuation range. In September, China's exports to Japan did not continue the trend of improvement in August, and fell again. Exports fell by 10.1% in the same month, an increase of 6 percentage points over the previous month. The growth rate of large categories of knitted and woven garments was only 3.4%. From January to September, China's textile and clothing exports to Japan decreased by 8.4% year-on-year and increased by 1.3% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodities of knitwear clothing increased by 7% year-on-year, 7.7% lower than that in 2019.

The recurrence of the epidemic in ASEAN has seriously affected the manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia. The governments of various countries are eager to keep the economy and gradually begin to adopt the strategy of "coexisting with the virus" to restore production and foreign supply. China's exports to ASEAN fell for the first time in August, and then rose again in September. Exports to ASEAN increased by 14.6% in the same month, including 18.6% growth in major commodity yarn fabrics. From January to September, China's textile and clothing exports to ASEAN increased by 23.1% year on year, the fastest growth among the four major markets. This is an increase of 23.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, yarn fabrics of key commodities increased by 29% year-on-year, 7.5% higher than that in 2019.

EU and Japan in August

Import decline from ASEAN

According to the import data of textiles and clothing in August in the main markets, the serious epidemic situation in Southeast Asia led to the loss of orders, which was mainly reflected in the European Union and Japan markets. Imports from ASEAN fell by 3.5% and 11.7% respectively in the same month, while the import of the United States from ASEAN still maintained a rapid growth rate.

From January to August, 27 EU countries imported 85.49 billion US dollars of textiles and clothing from the world, down 5.8%, 32.2% from China, and 32.7% from China, down from the same period in 2020 and still higher than that in the same period of 2019. Among them, textile accounted for 41.1%, clothing accounted for 29.3%, both lower than in 2020, higher than the same period in 2019. ASEAN's market position has been further improved. EU's textile and clothing imports from ASEAN increased by 24.9%, accounting for 13.1%, both higher than those in the previous two years.

From January to August, the United States imported 89.76 billion US dollars of textiles and clothing from the world, an increase of 14.3%, while imports from China amounted to 27.2 billion US dollars, a decrease of 12.7%. China accounted for 30.3%, lower than that in 2020 and the same period in 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 37% and clothing accounted for 27.8%, both lower than the same period in 2019 and 2020. The import of textiles and clothing from ASEAN increased by 32.3%, accounting for 25.8%, both higher than the previous two years.

From January to August, Japan imported 23.32 billion US dollars from the world, a decrease of 6.2%, and a decrease of 11.6% from China. China accounted for 55.3%, lower than the same period in 2020, but higher than that in the same period of 2019. Textile accounted for 57.4%, lower than the same period in 2020, higher than the same period in 2019; Clothing accounted for 54.5%, higher than the same period in 2020, lower than the same period in 2019. The import of textiles and clothing from ASEAN increased by 0.1%, accounting for 28.9%, both higher than the previous two years.

Southeast Asia and central and North America

Great demand for epidemic prevention materials

In September, the export volume of textile and clothing commodities maintained a good growth trend, with yarn, fabric and knitwear clothing increasing by 18.4%, 21.5% and 15% respectively, and the textile finished products decreased by 25%, and the decline rate was significantly narrowed. Since the third quarter, the export prices of major commodities have increased significantly. The export prices of yarns, fabrics and knitwear increased by 32.6%, 16.4% and 20.1%, respectively.

The export of anti epidemic materials to the world was still mainly decreased, but the regional difference was obvious: the export volume of medical masks to the world decreased by 71% in September, but the demand rebounded in Southeast Asia and central and North America due to the aggravation of the epidemic situation, and the export stopped falling. In September, the export of medical masks to ASEAN increased by 31% over the same period of last year, and the export to central and North America (except the United States and Canada) increased by 56%, which led to the decrease of cumulative export to both places from January to September.

From January to September, the cumulative export of textiles was 106.37 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, an increase of 19.4% over the same period of 2019, and the export of clothing was 126.65 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 26% and an increase of 12.5% over the same period of 2019. Among them, the export of masks and protective clothing totaled 12.632 billion US dollars, down 79% year-on-year. After removing masks, textiles increased by 37% year-on-year, 13.3% over the same period in 2019; The clothing without protective clothing increased by 38% year-on-year and 11.4% compared with that in 2019. Masks and protective clothing accounted for 5.4% of the total exports. Yarn, fabric and knitwear of major commodity increased by 44.2%, 38.1% and 24.9% respectively.

Note *: the statistics of masks and protective clothing are based on the HS8 code of Chinese customs.

Eastern and Western Regions

Promote the growth of national export

In September, the textile and clothing export volume of major provinces and cities in China maintained a good trend. Among the top five provinces and cities, only Guangdong's export growth is still negative, and the decline rate has been reduced to single digit, while Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Fujian all maintain growth.

From January to September, among the top five provinces and cities, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Fujian increased by 13.9%, 8.4%, 20.3% and 27.4% respectively, while Guangdong decreased by 7.9%. The export of Xinjiang, Hebei and Jiangxi grew rapidly, with an increase of more than 30%. The eastern region and the western region are the main regions driving the national growth, with the cumulative export growth of 6.9% and 24.5% respectively, driving the national growth by 5.9% and 1.1%. The central region fell slightly, down 7.7%.

The import price of raw materials soared

Both quantity and price of key commodities have risen

In the third quarter, the import volume of textiles and clothing reached a periodic high, with imports of 7.45 billion US dollars in the same quarter, an increase of 8.7% compared with the second quarter. However, the year-on-year growth slowed down significantly compared with the previous period, with a growth rate of 19.8% in the current quarter, far lower than 42.6% in the second quarter. Among them, the growth rate in September was 13.4%, which was the lowest in the year (except February).

In the first three quarters, the cumulative import of textile and clothing increased by 23.5%, and the volume and price of key import commodities increased simultaneously. The import volume of yarn, fabric and knitwear clothing increased by 21%, 0.2% and 10.4% respectively, and the average import price increased by 18.4%, 16.6% and 21.7%, respectively.

The import price of raw materials rose strongly. In September, the import price of textile raw materials rose by 54%, which was 32% higher than that at the end of the second quarter, and increased by 11.3% from January to September.

Cotton import volume price deviation

The international cotton price is rising rapidly

Since the beginning of the year, cotton imports showed a trend of deviation from volume and price. The import volume dropped rapidly from the peak in January to 75000 tons in September, a new low at the end of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of 65%. Import prices continued to rise, rising to $2120 / T in September, the highest level in the year, up 37% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, cotton imports totaled 1.85 million tons, an increase of 32.3%, and the average import price was 1870 US dollars / ton, an increase of 12%. The United States, Brazil, India, Australia and Burkinabe are among the top five source countries of imports. In addition to the 70% decline in imports from Australia, the cumulative imports from the other four places still maintain growth, but the monthly import has shown an obvious downward trend. New source countries (places) such as Benin, Sudan and Cote d'Ivoire are making up for the share of traditional importing countries (places).

According to the information released by the China Cotton Association, in September, new cotton harvesting began in succession. Affected by the weather, the national cotton picking progress was slower than last year, and the number of new cotton listed in the month was less, and the transaction of reserved cotton was enthusiastic. Driven by the rise of bulk commodity prices, the domestic and foreign cotton prices rose sharply, and the increase of foreign cotton prices was higher than that of domestic cotton, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed; On September 30, the cotook a index of international cotton spot price was 112.2 cents / pound, the price within tariff was 17869 yuan / ton, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was 1235 yuan / ton, the discount sliding standard tax price was 18000 yuan / ton, and the difference with domestic cotton price was 1105 yuan / ton. Over the same period, China's cotton price index (ccindex3128b) was 19104 yuan / ton, 977 yuan higher than the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 6213 yuan; The average monthly price was 18237 yuan / ton, up 221 yuan month on month and 5441 yuan on year.