Good Far Away From "Light Year", Crude Oil Fears "Ice Age".

In the past week, the international oil price as a whole has seen a downward trend. On the one hand, the unexpected increase in EIA gasoline inventories and refined oil inventories has caused the market to worry about weak demand, which has brought pressure on oil prices. On the other hand, it has worsened the international trade situation, exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the global economy, further reduced the demand for crude oil, and weakened oil prices.

　　 Sino US trade war rekindles flames of war

Crude oil prices fell to a two week low as the protracted trade disputes between the world's two largest economies escalated. On Friday night, trade friction between China and the United States suddenly escalated. The first time was 24 at eight in the evening. The announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose tariffs on imported goods originating in the United States, and crude oil prices fell 3% by 3%.

This is only the beginning. The 25 time in the morning of Beijing time, the US side announced that it would raise the tariff rate of about 550 billion US dollars on China's exports to the US. In addition, from September 1st, the remaining US $300 billion of goods and products from China will be taxed at 15% according to 10%. Obviously, the further deterioration of Sino US trade environment will continue to impact on the market on Monday.

EIA gasoline inventories and refined oil inventories increase

According to the relevant reports, the EIA crude oil inventory data released this week dropped, but gasoline inventories and refined oil inventories unexpectedly increased, which in the summer demand peak further highlighted the weak demand, which became one of the fuel prices of last week's decline. Specific data are as follows: the US EIA gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased by 312 thousand barrels in the week of August 9th, the expected decrease of 151 thousand barrels, and the reduction of the previous value by 1 million 412 thousand barrels; the US EIA oil inventories rose unexpectedly by 2 million 610 thousand barrels in the week August 9th, the expected reduction of 35 thousand barrels, and the increase in the previous value by 1 million 938 thousand barrels.

Supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state.

At present, the crude oil market is in a relatively balanced position in the case of OPEC's reduction in production and slow growth in demand side. From the supply side, OPEC continued to cut production, but the implementation rate of production cuts declined compared with the first half of the year. Crude oil output in the US continued to slow down in the first half of the year. However, with the increase in the capacity of the export pipeline, the output in the second half of this year was somewhat released, especially in the late three quarter and fourth quarter, and the supply pressure is expected to increase.

From the demand side, the US summer consumption season is coming to an end, gasoline demand will weaken gradually, the demand for heating in winter will be limited, and the global economic downturn will suppress long-term demand for crude oil, so it is hard to find support at the demand side.

　　 To sum up: from a macro level, the global economic growth rate continues to decline, while Sino US trade frictions intensified, and crude oil and other risky assets will continue to bear pressure. From the point of view of supply and demand, the effect of OPEC reduction is further weakened. In the second half of the year, the US crude oil supply has strong growth expectations along with the release of pipeline capacity, and the supply side has no positive support at present.

On the other hand, the end of the seasonal peak season of consumption in the United States, coupled with the global weakening of the overall demand for crude oil, is also hard to find a support point. Therefore, in the short term, the sharp increase in kinetic energy does not exist, and this week will enter oil prices or enter the "ice age".