ICE Cotton Futures Tumbled U.S. Cotton Contract Implementation Difficulties

In recent days, the main contract of ICE cotton futures has been adjusted in the 65-68 compartment. From the perspective of volume and position, the two sides have been cautious in their operations, and the mood of catching up and dropping has eased. From the technical level and market sentiment, there is a good expectation of the recovery, but the fundamentals and the peripheral markets do not have any positive stimulation. The rebound conditions and kinetic energy are not enough. The disk is waiting for the further clarifying of the Sino US trade consultation, the US cotton export weekly and the trend of the US Gulf situation and so on. It breaks 65 cents / pound and a large number of buying market to absorb the support of long confidence, while the 68 cents / pound above the plate has significantly reduced, and more funds have withdrawn voluntarily.

According to the analysis of the industry, on the one hand, although China and the United States both confirmed that the trade negotiations were not broken (open attitude), there was no timetable for the resumption of consultations between China and the United States, which made it difficult for cotton merchants and investors to panic. Trade wars could be upgraded at any time. The stabilization and rebound of ICE were "scary"; on the other hand, the cotton growing area in the northern hemisphere increased, and in 5-10 months, Australia and Brazil cotton entered the harvesting, processing and marketing stage. Not only in the Chinese market, but in the India, Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries, the use of Brazil cotton and Australian cotton instead of American cotton was becoming more and more common.

In addition, some foreign and import enterprises have reflected that Brazil cotton has been declining due to the lack of storage conditions, the increase of air temperature and the depreciation of currency Real to the US dollar. The price of ginning factories and exporters has continued to decline, which has impacted on exports of US cotton, Australian cotton, West African cotton and India cotton.

Some trade enterprises in Qingdao, Guangzhou and other places indicate that there is a certain difficulty in implementing the US cotton contract in 6-12 months of 2019. First, China has "overdrawn" tariff quotas for cotton imports ahead of schedule. The delivery date is mostly in the month of 6/7/8, but at present, the Sino US trade war rises, the US cotton plus levy 25% has no hope of lifting the tariff, and the 800 thousand ton sliding tariff tariff quota has not been clearly stated. Therefore, it is hoped that the contract between the buyer and the buyer will be postponed to 2019/20 year or directly defaulted. Two, the signing of the 2019/20 year, the US cotton has fallen sharply or has been difficult to meet because of ICE.

From the statistics point of view, since May, the ICE main contract has dropped from 77.33 to 64.5, two weeks more than 16.6%, and cotton mills and traders have lost a lot of money. And whether 2019/20 can abolish the levy on US cotton imports is still very variable. Therefore, we hope to re sign the procurement contract or break the contract with the seller to reduce the high cost risk.