Investment Analysis Of Apparel And Textile Industry In February 2014

< p > basic data points: the Spring Festival in January led to a marked increase in retail sales in January (fifty retail outlets < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing /a > and jewelry retail sales increased by 18% and 31% respectively), but during the Spring Festival, the retail sales of clothing (0.3% retail sales increased by 0.3%), and jewelry retail was further dragged by the high base (retail sales grew -10.9%); the growth rate of the Spring Festival was raised significantly from January to January.

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< p > up to February 19th, domestic and foreign gold prices continued to rise by 4.8% and 6.3% respectively at the end of last month. Domestic and foreign cotton prices rose by 0.1% and 2.8% respectively from the end of last month, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was further reduced by 3.6% to nearly 4200 yuan / ton, and cotton stocks were reduced by 1.2% in USDA2 months.

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< p > A stock company tracking: due to the early spring festival and other factors, the retail sales of some companies in January are obviously better than normal months. The retail sales in 1 and February are more reasonable.

富安娜:春节提前对直营零售有偏好的影响,对加盟偏负面,1月直营零售有双位数的增长,而加盟发货时间短肯定就有下滑,综合数据持平左右;美邦:1月同店和总销售预计有10%以上的增长,特别是直营表现还可以;老凤祥:1月销售有10-20%的增长,春节大概增长10%;报喜鸟:1月主品牌终端零售增长20-30%,而农历12月同比增长7-8%,增速与前期基本相当;罗莱:综合看1月可能不如去年,结合1、2月看数据比较合理;朗姿:1月整体经营增长不多;七匹狼:1月直营端有30%增长,春节期间直营收入增长个位数到两位数左右;森马:森马1月终端实现30%左右的增长,巴拉实现40%左右的增长;探路者:1月及春节销售基本维持前期的增长,春节期间销售同比增长22%,店效增长7%。

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< p > Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: Prada's revenue in the Greater China region increased by 15% to 830 million euros as of the end of fiscal year January. During the lunar new year, Zhou Dafu and the mainland of mainland China increased by 18% and 12% respectively; XTEP expects 14 years of sales to decline, but 15 years will recover; XTEP's 13Q4 sales are up to 4.2 times.

13Q4Hermes China's revenue, MichaelKors's same store and Fossil revenue increased by 19%, 28% and 12% respectively. In 2013, the income of LVMH fashion and leather goods increased by 5% to nearly 10 billion euros. As of the end of November, the revenue of Levi's's parent company was 4 billion 700 million US dollars. In January, the sales of GAP and H&M increased 1% and 15% respectively, and vip.com shares 75% stake in cosmetics, electric business, and bee net.

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< p > trend review: in the past 14 years, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > industry < /a > ranking is in the middle, but it has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the brand has increased. Most of the leading brands such as "the great bird", "search for special" and "Keno" have just dropped slightly, such as Langer, Luo Lai and AOKANG.

In the first half of February (up to 19), the industry ranked slightly ahead of the industry, and it won the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the brand was popular. It was led by special brands, birds of the world and the United States of America. The manufacturing industry was also popular (Jia Linjie and others led); H-share brand differentiation was obvious (I.T and Zhou Dafu led and Taifeng and Daphne led to decline). The key manufacturing groups also had differentiation but less volatility.

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< p > Investment Strategy: the early spring festival is beneficial to some companies in January, but it is more reasonable in the 1 and February, and it is expected that the total retail business will be running smoothly.

In February, the market was active, and all kinds of theme varieties were easy to show.

If there is no obvious recovery in retail sales in 1 and February, the industry will be expected to fluctuate in March.

On the whole, the recovery of industry demand is uncertain, but with the active participation of participants, the O2O of mobile terminals in 14 years is expected to be promoted.

In the context of the bottom of the performance and valuation and the downside risk is not large, the trend of online and offline progress will also play a stabilizing role in valuation or a certain stage.

We suggest that the participation of the target can be comprehensively selected according to the following factors: line and down, safety margin and fundamentals.

Along with this main line, there may be some opportunities for the possibility of wave band in the year. The first is the Pathfinder, the United States and fuanna, and the other, such as Keno and Semir, can see a quarterly performance expectation or catalyst and so on.

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< p > risk hint: economic slowdown affects terminal consumption; external demand is not conducive to export; cost promotion affects < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > profit < /a >.

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