The Dumping And Storage Policy May Continue To Solve The Problem Of Large Cotton Stocks

The dumping and storage may continue until the end of July. As of July 4, the cumulative dumping and storage cotton The volume was 2.6992 million tons, and the turnover ratio remained at about 30%. The turnover ratio of imported cotton was far higher than that of domestic cotton. Among them, 2.1863 million tons of domestic cotton were sold, and 512900 tons of imported cotton were sold (including 80500 tons in 2005, 31400 tons in 2009, and 401000 tons in 2011). The adjustment of such policies has a negative impact on development spin 、 clothing Industry is very important, so it has become a hot topic in the industry and society.

Since July, the number of cotton dumping and storage plans has increased, from the previous average 100000 tons to 300000 tons, but the turnover rate has decreased. According to the average daily turnover of 50000 tons, 19 working days before the end of dumping and storage, the cumulative amount of cotton dumping and storage by the end of July is about 3.5 million to 3.6 million tons, far less than the planned volume of 4.5 million tons. Calculated according to the 3:1 quota of throw storage tying, there is about 1.2 million tons of quota. From January to May 2013, the quantity of imported cotton was 2.14 million tons, excluding 890000 tons of quota within tariff and 450000 tons of port bonded area Cotton quantity And the quota carried forward from the previous year to the next year. It is estimated that the market has a quota of 500000 to 600000 tons. From this point of view, there may be a short period of tight cotton circulation between the end of July and the listing of new cotton.

The decrease of planting area is limited. According to the survey on relevant websites, the cotton planting area nationwide in 2012 was about 74080000 mu, with an output of 7470000 tons. It is estimated that the intended cotton planting area in 2013 will be 70.65 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 3.43 million mu, or 4.6%; It is estimated that the national cotton output in 2013 will be 7.05 million tons, a decrease of 5.6% over the previous year. By the end of May, cotton transplanting across the country had basically ended, except for summer cotton. At present, the cotton seedling situation in the two river basins is basically the same as that in the same period of the year. The cotton area in southern Xinjiang has more rainfall in the early stage, and the unit yield may decline. Pay attention to the impact of weather conditions on cotton quality in the later period.

As of July 4, there were 184 new cotton warehouse receipts (7360 tons), and 35 valid forecasts. Zheng Mian 1309 contract squeeze expected to strengthen, the price firm, moving average arrangement. Zheng Mian's 1401 contract trend fluctuates, and Zhou's moving average is stuck. Since the listing of Zheng Mian 1405 contract, it has been mainly weak, with the weekly K line down. The sharp drop in the last two days has led to the significant expansion of the contract price difference in the near and far months.

　　 Zheng Mian The 1401 contract and the 1405 contract are both contracts after the implementation of 2013/2014 annual purchase and storage, but their trends differ significantly. If the 2013/2014 annual purchase and storage volume is huge, the 1401 contract support will be strengthened, then the 1405 contract still has the problem of short position or cotton shortage; If 2013/2014 is affected by the detailed rules and the stock collection is not as expected, then 1401 contract will be under pressure and 1405 contract will also be affected.

To sum up, the domestic inventory is huge, and the dumping and storage policy may continue. In the context of the uncertainty of the 2013/2014 detailed rules for the collection and storage, we are short on Zheng Mianyuan. With the acceleration of selling and storing in the later period, and the probability of low price correction after the sharp fall of bulk commodities is high, the cotton will be left out or will face pressure again if the excess varieties are accumulated with more funds.