Zheng Cotton Futures Prices Fell To 8 Days Down

The main contract closed 1 million 510 thousand hands, reducing 200 thousand hands, holding 240 thousand hands, an increase of 8000 hands.

Tomorrow, Zheng cotton or will continue to fall, and has again tested the possibility of 24000 yuan.

The main factors that affect cotton futures prices have shifted from supply and demand to technology.

According to wave theory, since the end of November 10th cotton futures prices rose to a downward trend, the main 1109 contract fell to 24180 yuan per ton in November 29th, which is the first wave of decline, usually known as A wave. From November 29th to December 6th, it continued to rebound to the highest level of 27685 yuan, and the rebound rate was just 1/3, which is a wave of rebound, that is, B wave.

Generally speaking, there is another wave of decline after the B wave, that is, the C wave.

The target will reach a low level of 24180 yuan, and there is a possibility of further breakdown.

In terms of fundamentals, the long-term supply and demand of cotton is tight.

Since the current rally, the US cotton March contract has risen to 135.34 cents from a minimum of 111.13 cents per pound, up 21%, while Zheng cotton's September contract rose from 24180 yuan per ton to today's highest 27420 yuan, or 13%.

In this way, the United States cotton will continue to uplink Zheng cotton in the near future.

However, if the US cotton has also seen a significant decline in the near future, it will further promote the downward trend of Zheng cotton.

In the spot market, cotton prices are more stable, and the price of grade 3 cotton is between 26500 yuan and 27000 yuan.

Of course, after a sharp rise and fall, the probability of Zheng cotton's price exceeding the previous 30 thousand yuan is very small.

According to the cotton planting intention survey conducted by the China Cotton Association to the mainland farmers in 2011, the cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin is expected to increase by 11.7%, and the enthusiasm of cotton farmers in the the Yellow River river basin is not high, with an expected increase of 4.9%.

Internationally, the increase in US cotton planting area also depends on the price comparison with other crops. At present, the increase is likely to be around 12%.

In India, cotton production per unit has increased year by year, and the potential for increasing production has been greater. However, its policy of restricting exports has not loosened. It has limited effect on easing the contradiction between supply and demand in China's textile industry.