Reinhard: The Key Support Is 81.60-79 Cents.
New York cotton
This week prices continued to challenge last week's highest point of 86 cents (10 year December contract base price), but due to lack of energy, it failed to break through the current trading pattern.
A slight increase in volume and a small volume of pactions is not enough to support the recovery of the market.
10 year December contract -11 March contract price difference is still limited to about 100 points.
Market outlook - the market seems to be struggling at the current level, but there is no strong indication that the market has formed a lasting and important top.
The upward trend beginning at the lowest point in July seems to have not yet ended, that is, the initial 88.50 cent target may have added another support.
On the other hand, the market is far away from key support.
Therefore, the adjustment may develop further at a certain point.
The key support is 81.60 cents, followed by 79 cents (10 year December contract base price).
79 cents is a crucial support.
Picking work in the southern Uzbekistan area has begun.
Pick
Work is expected to start in early September.
The final output in 10/11 is expected to exceed 1 million tons, while ELS cotton production is still very small. We expect output of about 1500-2000 tons.
Turkmenistan production scale is 300000 tons, or slightly higher.
Traditionally, the first batch.
New cotton
It will be sold again on local exchanges. The first batch of new cotton sales will be sold later this year.
Turkmenistan is still the largest producer of Super Long Cotton (ELS) in Central Asia, but the expected output in 2010/11 will not exceed 12000 tons (about 20000 tons last year).
Tajikistan Tajik cotton output seems to have recovered slightly.
yield
It is expected to be close to 100000 tons (about 1400 tons of extra long staple cotton).
Picking work in the southern Hatlon area has begun.
Picking work in the northern part of the country is expected to begin in early September.
China - this week, the price of the Zhengzhou commodity exchange (ZCE) showed a consolidation trend, and the market rose sharply a month ago to the highest point in March.
In January, the 11 year contract closed down, but the volume increased.
In August 19th, the sale of CNCE national cotton store auction was shortened due to software problems. Last week, the number and price drop were only one day.
On the next trading day, the market resumed, and the daily sales volume was about 15000 tons, and the price was about 18000 tons.
The demand for imported cotton in textile mills is mainly concentrated on the cotton delivered to China before the end of the year, so that they can make use of the import quota before the import quota expires in 2010.
It is said that in eastern China, cotton began to pick small areas in 2010/11.
The price of seed cotton is at the same level as the cotton price being sold this year.
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