The Expected Average Value Of New RMB Loans In May Was 587 Billion 500 Million Yuan.
In June 7th, the securities market weekly and the CCTV2 "market analysis room" jointly launched the "crystal ball China macroeconomic consensus in May". The average value of the new RMB loans in May is 587 billion 500 million yuan, which is 186 billion 500 million yuan more than the real value in April.
Consistent expectations survey shows that the expected value of new RMB loans in May 2010 is 600 billion yuan, with a maximum value of 850 billion yuan and a minimum value of 391 billion 500 million yuan.
Meng Yuan, an analyst with Paris securities, said in a telephone interview with reporters that as the government stepped up real estate regulation, the pressure of bank capital adequacy ratio and the rise in repo rate, liquidity constraints were tight. In May, the new RMB loans would be greatly reduced, and new credit for the whole year or less than 750 million yuan of government regulation targets.
Wang Jianhui, deputy general manager of Southwest Securities (600369, SH) R & D center, said in a telephone interview with reporters that due to seasonal factors and increased central bank regulation and control policies, the new RMB loans in May will be substantially reduced.
In the second half of 2010, new RMB loans will be stable, or less than 750 million yuan a year.
Central bank data show that in March, the new RMB loan was 510 billion 700 million yuan, and in April the new RMB loan was 774 billion yuan.
From 1 to April, new RMB loans amounted to 33748 billion yuan.
The agencies involved in the survey included 601988.SH (03988.HK), 601328.SH (03328.HK), Guotai Junan Securities, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities (600837.SH), China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Paris securities of France, and Standard Chartered Bank, HSBC and so on.
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